I don’t know about you, but I find if you read the Daily
Mail, there are only three topics that make the blood boil of ‘Middle England’.
Bureaucracy from Brussels, House Prices and the late Princess of Wales.
Ignoring the late Princess if I can for this article, but if we as a country
were to unshackle ourselves from chains of Brussels (the first topic), could we
inadvertently effect the second topic and make UK house values drop?
If you read all the newspapers, the Brexit debate seems to
be focused solely on central London. Many commentators have said Brexit would
mean central London would have a lower standing in the world, meaning less
people would be employed in Central London, with the implication of lower
wages, fewer jobs etc., in Central London ... but we are in Morley, not
Marylebone, Mayfair or any part of Zone 1 London.
Now on the final run up to the vote on the 23rd of June, the
‘in’ camp are attempting to scare homeowners with forecasts of negative equity,
and the ‘out’ camp are appealing to the 20 somethings, who have been priced out
of the property market with the prospect of a new era of inexpensive housing,
should the fears of central London estate agents and developers, who believe
the bottom will fall out of the market if we do leave, become real. The only
reason the Mayfair’s, Knightsbridge’s, and Kensington’s of central London are
attractive to foreign buyers are political and economic steadiness, an open and
honest legal system and a lively cultural life. None of that is threatened by
Brexit.
... But again, we are in Morley and central London is 192
miles away. We are hometown to the mighty Morley RFC, birthplace of Helen
Fielding and Henry Asquith and named ‘the most patriotic town in England’. And whilst the central London property market
exploded after 2009, that explosion really and honestly didn’t affect the
Morley property market. So, putting central London aside, what would an ‘in’ or
‘out’ vote really mean for the 10,924 property owners of Morley?
'In' or 'Out'? What does is mean for Morley Property?
Post vote, should the UK opt to leave Brussels, there is
likely be a much more noteworthy impact. I believe that a vote to stay in the
EU would see the Morley property market return to a status quo very quickly,
but the contrasting result could lead to some changes. The principal menace to
the Morley (and UK) housing market could be variation (in an upwards direction)
in interest rates as a result of a Brexit, which could theoretically see the
cost of mortgages grow swiftly, pricing many out of the market … but then two
thirds of landlords buy without a mortgage, so that won’t affect them. Also,
according to the Bank of England, 80.33% of all new mortgages taken out in 2015
were fixed rate. Looking at all mortgages as a whole, according to the Bank of
England, 44% of all UK mortgagees have a fixed rate mortgage, but 56% don’t, so
if you aren’t on a fixed rate ... talk to your mortgage broker now, because
they can only go in one direction!
So in reality, if I really knew what will happen, I wouldn’t
be a letting / estate agent in Morley, but a City Whiz Kid in London earning
millions. However, I suspect whatever decision the electorate of Morley and the
country as a whole make, over the long term it won’t have a major effect on the
Morley property market. We have seen off ‘the end of the world’ credit crunch
of 2008/9 and subsequent property crash, the 1988 Nigel Lawson induced post
dual-MIRAS property crash, the 1979 Winter of Discontent property crash, the
1974 oil crisis that stimulated another property crash ... hell, we can even go
back nearly a century with the 1926 post General Strike slump in property
prices...
Today, property prices are 207% higher than 21 years ago in
Morley and are 8% higher than 12 months ago. So, make your own decision on 23rd
of June 2016 safe in knowledge that whatever the result, there might be some
short term volatility in the Morley property market, but in the long term (and
property investment is a long term strategy) there aren’t enough houses in
Morley to live in either to buy or rent … and until the Government allow more
properties to be built – the Morley property market, will be just fine ... even
if it has a little blip in the summer, there could be some property bargains on
the run up to Christmas to be had!
For more advice and opinion on the Morley property market,
even where those buy to let bargains could be found now ... visit the Morley
Property Blog http://morleypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/
Read more:
House Prices in Morley Increase Year on Year - http://morleypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/house-prices-in-morley-increase-year-on.html
The most expensive street in Morley - http://morleypropertyblog.blogspot.co.uk/2016_04_01_archive.html
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